2008 was not a good year for Mexico. Hugo Sanchez was fired as coach of Mexico's national soccer team and Interior Secretary Juan Camilo Mourino was killed in a plane accident along with many other public officials and innocent bystanders. The Mexican Olympic Team managed to perform even worse in Beijing 2008 than it was originally expected; and the Governor of the Mexican Central Bank, Guillermo Ortiz, and the Secretary of the Treasury, Augustin Carsens, tried to convince the general public that Mexico would only be marginally affected by the US financial crisis‚ the effects would only be felt in the level of exports, tourism, and remittances. Several Mexicans celebrating Independence Day in September in Morelia, the capital of Michoacan state, were killed during a terrorist attack apparently perpetrated by drug cartels. This event was only the culmination of the efforts of drug cartels to destabilize the country. Indeed, this has been one of the most violent years in Mexican history: up to December of 2008, more than 5,400 persons have been killed in events related to the Drug War in Mexico. The literal War on Drugs has produced innumerable casualties across the country and brought violence to places than had never experienced any problems.

The Mexican state has also suffered serious setbacks: not only has the state lost valuable high ranking officials to the Drug War, but has also identified cases of corruption at the heart of law enforcement agencies that affected years of multi-agency cooperation against drugs. This is particularly significant in a context where the armed forces‚ effectively in charge of fighting the War on Drugs‚ suffer of institutional weaknesses and low morale among their troops, and where good elements at the Ministries of Public Security and the Attorney General's Office face institutional challenges that prevent them from contributing to security efforts. Meanwhile, the general population has been left almost unprotected and at the mercy of criminal bands that, in cooperation with, or under the leadership of former law enforcement agents, have brought a new wave of kidnappings that have produced dozens of victims across the country. In addition to the holiday cheers that quickly move throughout the country in December, the effects of the US financial crisis have also spread and left thousands of Mexicans without a job. However, it seems that the worse is still to come: the economies of the United States and Mexico share a number of links and the crisis can only have a multiplicative effect on the rate of growth in Mexico.

This blog usually receives comments about the coverage of "bad news" in Mexico. Although we would be happy to report and analyze news and developments related to "good events" in the country, politics and economics are dominated by unfortunate trends. Yet, it is encouraging and refreshing to know that not everything is terrible in Mexico. Former political rivals and groups managed to negotiate a strategic energy reform in a context of democratic and open participation‚ in spite of the efforts that originally used force to place this issue in the agenda. The Merida Initiative, a needed multibillion dollar initiative that will strengthen Mexico's and Central America's law enforcement agencies, was passed by the US Congress after an exemplary effort of cooperation between different branches of government across borders. Mexican fans of European soccer gladly welcomed the appointment of Sven-Goran Eriksson as coach of Mexico's national team.

2009 will also be a difficult year for Mexico, as for many other countries politically and economically linked to major financial centers. However, the presence of difficulties does not imply that the country cannot rise and improve. The country will elect a new Congress in 2009. The election results will provide a good estimate of the strength of the political forces and will also serve as an evaluation of Calderon's government. Moreover, it is very exciting to observe how the PRI becomes a renovated political force that might be a serious contender in the next Presidential elections. The young governor of Mexico state, Enrique Pena Nieto, is a rising star that is worth keeping track of. In the security front, the Ministry of Public security submitted a new law to Congress that could seriously transform police activities across the country. The new law will place several federal police units under a single command.

In sum, Mexico, just like the rest of the planet, faces gloomy prospects for 2009. At least the merchants at the Basilica of Guadalupe will profit from this, as the Virgin of Guadalupe will be receiving extra visitors. For many Mexicans, the pilgrimage to the Basilica will provide them with the strength and the divine help to survive difficult times.