Little is set to change in North American relations, over a week after President Calderón hosted President Obama and Prime Minister Harper. Many press accounts acknowledge this, some arguing that the leaders opted “to punt” on the difficult issues. The summit’s failure to produce meaningful change is hardly surprising.

In fact, the mundane outcome is reflective of disjointed interests, some of which are best suited for a bilateral forum. Mexico is aggrieved because of recent visa requirements imposed on its citizens visiting Canada. President Calderón is also trying to wrangle monies from the US in order to address its drug-fueled violence, as provided for in the Merida Initiative, but Washington is hesitating to release the funds for fear of human rights abuses by Mexican forces. On the trade front, the US has been dragging its feet on permitting Mexican trucks to commute on US highways, a provision agreed to in the NAFTA.

Other issues require a broader international response. H1N1 has swept the globe, beckoning attention from a wider array of leaders than those in North America. At the highest level, the only good the “three amigos” can do is make joint statements that they will not resort to silliness, such as sealing off borders or the like, in combating the pandemic.

Truth be told, the recent summit was poorly timed. The global recession and domestic issues have bogged down each leader, so they were not meeting in Guadalajara with much energy. For serious headway on the prickly issues they jointly face, the US economy will have to recover first. Crisis management requires triage. And so while much has happened in Mexico of late, not much has changed.

President Barack Obama is visiting Mexico. Not surprisingly, drug trafficking will be at the center of the agenda as the violence fueled by American weapons threatens to cross the border into American territory. Presidents Obama and Calderón will have to work out the details of how a strong state can help a weak one to curb violence along the long US-Mexico border. Hopefully, Obama and Calderón will present potential solutions beyond stopping the illegal smuggling of arms to Mexico and reducing corruption in Mexican law enforcement agencies. Otherwise, the results of the meeting will be as boring as usual.

Well, not too far. Apart from an Aeromexico direct flight from Mexico City to Shanghai, Mexico’s foreign policy is not particularly global in scope. Of course it could be argued that Mexico has now a prominent place in the community of nations because it just recently assumed the Presidency of the UN Security Council. Unfortunately, the Security Council is not the most effective international organization in the planet (in general international organizations are not that effective).

The office of Mexican President Felipe Calderon also announced that the country has recovered its leadership of Latin America. However, this is quite a vague statement since Mexico has not led anything since the 1980s. But at least the administration tries its best: President Calderon was on a state visit to the United Kingdom. In order to improve Mexico’s strategic position in the world, the Mexican President had dinner with the Queen. It is unclear if he wore a hat to the dinner. It is unfortunate that at the time of the visit Mexico had not fired Sven-Goran Eriksson as coach of the national soccer team. Otherwise, Mexican officials could have convinced their British counterparts that Mexico knows what it is doing.

In other happy news, the Mexican government received a 47 billion dollar loan from the IMF. However, according to the Finance Minister, Mexico does not really need the money. They just asked for it in case things go wrong. Unfortunately, things seem to get worse by the day. The IMF can just put the loan on Mexico’s tab: this would not be the first time this happens.

And last but not least, Mexico was also present at the G-20 meeting. The Mexican President did not steal the show this time. In this occasion, and once again, Barack and Michelle Obama were the stars of the meeting. Yet, the Mexican administration should not feel too bad about the lack of publicity during the meeting (even though Mexico has now recovered its leadership of Latin America). At least Janet Napolitano and Eric Holder, US Secretary of Homeland Security and US Attorney General respectively, just visited Mexico and met with President Calderon. The office of the Mexican presidency has not reported whether they hugged each other.

The politically correct answer is the following: because Mexico is an important partner of the United States. However, the real answer is something closer to this: because Mexico is using taxpayer’s dollars in a war against drugs that is spilling into the United States and it may need even more funds to keep the effort. The fact that Obama will visit Mexico in April also plays in important role in the visit.

As the US government tries to recover money granted to AIG, the Mexican government is trying to recover sovereignty over Ciudad Juarez. The city on the US-Mexico border is currently occupied by more than 7,000 Mexican troops. Relative to the total size of armed forces, this is equivalent to a deployment of 41,000 US soldiers. Not only has the Mexican government positioned an immense number of forces in the city, but it has also taken over its local law enforcement agencies. A few days ago, several active and retired high ranking officers took oath as heads of the city’s department of public security, municipal police, and special police forces, among many others. This action effectively ends the city’s autonomy in the law enforcement dimension. These events suggest that the situation in this old border town is dire. Perhaps for this reason the US military has been considering whether and how to help its Mexican counterpart. The visit of President Obama to Mexico in April should clarify to what extent is the US willing to participate in the fight against drugs in Mexico.

President Barack Obama should meet Professor Zedillo, former President of Mexico and Director of the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, because Zedillo might provide valuable advice on how to approach the current economic crisis in the United States. Former President Zedillo, after being elected into office in 1994, inherited a country plagued by economic recession and political instability only comparable to Revolutionary times. Six years after he took office, the country had economically recovered and taken the final steps towards full democratization. Although both crises are different, the experience of Professor Zedillo, a Yale-trained economist and graduate of Mexican politics, might prove useful to a young and challenged Obama administration.

Meetings between American and Mexican Presidents are as ubiquitous as “taco trucks” in Jackson Heights, Queens. The issues addressed during these meetings range from the improvement of relations by means of a courtesy visit to a ranch, to the negotiation of billions in dollars in aid to Mexico. Addressing these issues is important almost by definition, and this brings political benefits to the leaders involved (most of the time). However, it is difficult to believe that, in such meetings, Presidents actually exchange political advice.

A meeting between Zedillo and Obama would be a remarkable event, not only because this does not happen often, but also because Zedillo might actually offer insight on how to approach the economic crisis. Zedillo can offer advice as an economist, and here is an article published by him in Forbes that proves it. However, economics is not Zedillo’s comparative advantage. Zedillo’s experience as a survivor of economic and political crises is his comparative advantage and a source of advice on how to navigate rough seas. This does not mean that Zedillo is the greatest captain in Mexican history (and indeed some people preferred to jump to high seas rather than staying on board), but is a captain that brought the country to shore after a violent storm.

President Calderon's meeting with President-elect Barack Obama this past Monday comes at a crucial time for both countries.  While it is customary for the American President to visit Mexico early in his administration, it is unusual that Calderon and Obama met before the Obama inauguration on Tuesday the 20th.

Clearly the global economy is of dominant concern to both world leaders.  In contrast to past financial crises that originated in Latin America, such as the 1994 Tequila Crisis, the current crisis originated in the US and has spilled over to the rest of the world, including Mexico.  The two leaders meeting is important because it signals the importance of Mexico to the incoming administration.  While President Bush first met with then-President Vicente Fox at the beginning of his term, bilateral issues were largely sidelined until several years after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.  Now many issues are coming back to the forefront.

In addition to the global credit crisis, many American officials worry that the wave of drug-related violence in Mexico may spill over into the US.  The earlier Merida Initiative, a billion-plus dollar anti-drug program with the US and Mexico, was a big step in the right direction.  The next administration recognizes the urgency of the issue.

American President-elect Barack Obama met with Mexican President Felipe Calderon in Washington on Monday.  More detailed analysis to follow, but see coverage here.  Significantly, the BBC points out that this will be “Mr Obama's first [meeting] with a foreign leader since his election in November”.  Although high-profile issues of the global financial crisis and wars abroad will dominate American policymaking, Obama's meeting with Calderon sends an important signal of solidarity between the two countries.  The most pressing issue now is organized crime and the widespread violence that is engulfing Mexico.  The US is responsible in large part due to the demand of drugs and lax gun laws which allow traffickers to bring weapons into Mexico.  See BBC article here.

However, it is important to remember that when President Bush was first elected, his first meeting with a head of state was with then President Fox of Mexico.  The bilateral agenda between the two countries, primarily about trade and immigration at the time, was quickly sidelined after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

By now you surely have seen the headlines about the historic election of Barack Obama as the next President of the United States.  As an American, I’m thrilled to have Obama as our next President, and to know that the race and class barriers have been shattered by his victory.

Naturally, his election will have implications for US policy toward Mexico.  When President Bush came to office in 2000, his first visit with a head of state was to then President of Mexico, Vicente Fox.  The two pledged to work together on immigration reform.  Sadly, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 drastically changed American life and government priorities.

That said, there is now another chance to renew dialogue with Mexico on immigration reform.  Though the headlines are now dominated by the financial crisis, the issue will surely come to the forefront within the next two years.  Since immigration reform focusing particularly on Mexico was last blocked by Conservative Republicans, this change of power will present a new opportunity of political capital to work on immigration.

This begs the question: how will an Obama administration's policies on Mexico differ from the Bush administration's? First, I believe a Democratic administration will largely continue a bipartisan approach toward Latin America in general and specifically toward Mexico.  The recently signed Merida Initiative to fight organized crime and drugs in Mexico will continue to have Presidential and Congressional support.  The difference I foresee with that accord may be to place more emphasis on human rights from Congressional Democrats.

While Obama talked tough on NAFTA and free trade to win votes during the primary election, it is highly unlikely that the free trade agreement with Mexico will be modifided.  During the Presidential campaign Obama slipped a comment to a Canadian official that anti-trade rhetoric was “political positioning.”  What may change with regard to trade is whether or not Congress will renew Presidential “fast-track” trade authority which allows a yes-or-no vote by Congress instead of a lengthy process with amendments.  With free trade low on the Democratic agenda, it seems unlikely that the authority will be renewed.
The change of power in the US will be exciting and have important implications for Mexico.  In the next few weeks I intend to read through Obama's position papers and attend events in Washington on the implications for policy change.  Like the Obama campaign says, “Si se puede!”

John McCain's visit to Mexico in July 2nd and 3rd came as a surprise. The media in Mexico and the United States only reported McCain's travel plans to Colombia and Mexico just a few days before the trip was to take place. During the trip to Mexico, McCain met with captains of industry, politicians, diplomats, and even visited the Basilica de Guadalupe in Mexico City. The visit to the Basilica produced some sarcastic comments in the media, as McCain is not Catholic and the Basilica is one of the most important Catholic temples of one of the most conservative countries on the planet. Regardless of the visit to the temple, the visit to the country does suggest that McCain wants to "build alliances" in Mexico as soon as possible. If the right alliances are built with the right groups, McCain will get some extra votes in the United States and, if elected President, will get some support in his policies towards Mexico.

However, it seems that McCain is not building the right alliances in Mexico when it comes to immigration. McCain's position on border security caused more controversy than his visit to the Catholic temple because he suggested that it was necessary to secure the border between Mexico and the United States before attempting immigration reform. This realistic, yet unpopular position‚ at least in Mexico and some liberal circles in the United States‚ was particularly highlighted by the media. This is only normal, as there are more than 8 millions Mexicans living‚ legally or illegally‚ in the United States.

Overall, McCain's visit to Mexico was surprising. However, it was a good surprise, as the trip suggests that Mexico is more important in his platform than previously announced. Although Barack Obama has addressed the issue of Mexico before, he has not suggested that Mexico is in his itinerary. Although a visit to Mexico can only bring limited votes‚ which is what matters in an election‚ there is nothing wrong with paying a visit to one the most important allies of the United States in the Americas.