President Felipe Calderón is trying his hand at regional power broker. Deposed Honduran President Manuel Zelaya called on Mexico yesterday to bolster his presidential claims, hoping that Mexico can exert the necessary diplomatic pressure to return him to office. Costa Rican President Óscar Arias notably failed to broker a change in Zelaya’s status over the past month, a disappointment only made worse by Secretary of State Clinton’s rebuke of Zelaya’s symbolic border crossing into Honduras ten days ago.

The world quickly relegated the story of the Honduran coup on June 28. As coups go, it was a jejune affair. Zelaya was booted by the Honduran military for overtures to change the Constitution in order to run for another term, Roberto Micheletti was proclaimed interim president, and most Hondurans accepted the transition without much consternation. Five people have been killed in incidents related to the crisis.

But Zelaya has continued to lobby for reinstatement as president. America, the only nation that could surely return Mr. Zelaya to power, is keeping its distance from the affair. Lacking forceful action by the US, Zelaya initially turned to his leftist allies in the region for assistance. They cooked up a plot to fly into Honduras together. Unfortunately for Mr. Zelaya, the airport runway was blocked, depriving him of a return to Honduran soil and depriving Chávez & Co. an opportunity for diplomatic courage points. (Why didn’t Zelaya charter a diversion plane to fly to the capital while landing his plane at a less obvious airport?) As is often the case in the region, relying on Hugo Chávez and Cristina Kirchner for more than bombast and a grand gesture is just wishful thinking.

Mr. Zelaya is now being more realistic. By cozying to President Calderón he is trading rhetoric for relevance. Mexico dominates the Central American sphere by historically serving as the chief hub to the America market. The meeting proved immediately beneficial to Zelaya, as Calderón stated he would take up Zelaya’s reinstatement “more intensely.” Zelaya will soon be in Brazil, looking to gain similar support from Latin America’s largest economy.

Zelaya may be signaling a newfound distance from the region’s notorious leftists. A long time ally of President Chávez, a move toward centre-right Mexico could mean Zelaya now heeds the rocky shoals of solipsism. This is the view of certain commentators. If so, it could mean a warm reception in other centrist or right-leaning countries. But perhaps the dichotomy lies elsewhere. Rather than simply a reorientation to the right, Zelaya’s move to curry favor with Calderón (centre-right) and Lula (centre-left) indicates, in my opinion, a newfound appreciation for the rule of law. Adherence to the law and democratic institutions are well respected in many left-leaning nations (Brazil, Chile, etc.) in the region. Unfortunately, such respects are scant in Venezuela, Bolivia, and elsewhere. Regardless of how we read his moves, it seems Zelaya would now agree that trying to change Honduras’ Constitution Hugo-style wasn’t such a great idea after all.

Imagine closing all schools in a metropolitan area three times the size of New York City. Such an order was just the beginning of an aggressive government initiative to stop an outbreak of influenza in Mexico City. The federal government has closed public buildings and suspended public events. Additional orders include a massive vaccination campaign as well as the power to isolate potential carriers of the disease and enter their homes in order to control the epidemic. The World Health Organization is currently on an emergency session whereas the US government is closely monitoring the development of the disease. So far more than 60 people have died due to this new swine flu strain since mid-March 2009.

Well, not too far. Apart from an Aeromexico direct flight from Mexico City to Shanghai, Mexico’s foreign policy is not particularly global in scope. Of course it could be argued that Mexico has now a prominent place in the community of nations because it just recently assumed the Presidency of the UN Security Council. Unfortunately, the Security Council is not the most effective international organization in the planet (in general international organizations are not that effective).

The office of Mexican President Felipe Calderon also announced that the country has recovered its leadership of Latin America. However, this is quite a vague statement since Mexico has not led anything since the 1980s. But at least the administration tries its best: President Calderon was on a state visit to the United Kingdom. In order to improve Mexico’s strategic position in the world, the Mexican President had dinner with the Queen. It is unclear if he wore a hat to the dinner. It is unfortunate that at the time of the visit Mexico had not fired Sven-Goran Eriksson as coach of the national soccer team. Otherwise, Mexican officials could have convinced their British counterparts that Mexico knows what it is doing.

In other happy news, the Mexican government received a 47 billion dollar loan from the IMF. However, according to the Finance Minister, Mexico does not really need the money. They just asked for it in case things go wrong. Unfortunately, things seem to get worse by the day. The IMF can just put the loan on Mexico’s tab: this would not be the first time this happens.

And last but not least, Mexico was also present at the G-20 meeting. The Mexican President did not steal the show this time. In this occasion, and once again, Barack and Michelle Obama were the stars of the meeting. Yet, the Mexican administration should not feel too bad about the lack of publicity during the meeting (even though Mexico has now recovered its leadership of Latin America). At least Janet Napolitano and Eric Holder, US Secretary of Homeland Security and US Attorney General respectively, just visited Mexico and met with President Calderon. The office of the Mexican presidency has not reported whether they hugged each other.

The depth and breadth of Operation Xcellerator suggests that Mexican drug cartels present a clear and present danger to the American population and its institutions. Operation Xcellerator is an extensive investigation that resulted in the arrest of 775 criminals and the seizure of almost $60 million dollars and 23 tons of drugs, among other assets. The operation targeted the Sinaloa drug cartel, one of the four main cartels that have brought many Mexican law enforcement agencies to their knees. In spite of the statements made by Mexican officials, the power of these cartels is almost unparalleled and now threatens to extend into the United States.

Mexican drug cartels have turned into extremely successful enterprises backed by extraordinary firepower. Although these cartels are not motivated by political goals (they are motivated by profit), they have infiltrated some of the most guarded and strategic Mexican law enforcement agencies. When cartels are not successful in corrupting Mexican officials, or when they just want to send a signal, they turn to the murder of high-value targets. In February 21, the chief of police of Ciudad Juarez resigned as a result of a cartel’s demands, which were accompanied by the assassination of two police officers. In 2008 there were close to 6,000 deaths related to drugs.

American officials now fear that the violence will cross the border. What is certain is that the United States has been playing an important role on current events in Mexico. The demand for drugs in the United States not only fuels the drug trade, but weapons bought by cartel operatives in the United States have also been crossing the border into Mexico. Unfortunately, neither the demand for drugs nor the sale of weapons has been seriously addressed by the United States government. However, the latter has been implementing a series of operations since the late 1960s in order to curve the production and traffic of drugs. Unlike Operation Xcellerator, operations Intercept, Cooperation, Condor, and Vanguard all targeted drug cartels in Latin American and Mexican territories. Xcellerator targeted a Mexican cartel on American soil. Evidently, these operations have not been particularly successful in the long run.

Nevertheless, it is possible that both Mexican and American governments are now more aware of potential problems and difficulties (from American unilateralism, the kidnapping of Mexican citizens, and Mexican widespread corruption) and negotiated an effective Mérida Initiative. Yet, the question is whether the initiative will pay off before both countries have to literally fight drug cartels in both sides of the border.

President Barack Obama should meet Professor Zedillo, former President of Mexico and Director of the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, because Zedillo might provide valuable advice on how to approach the current economic crisis in the United States. Former President Zedillo, after being elected into office in 1994, inherited a country plagued by economic recession and political instability only comparable to Revolutionary times. Six years after he took office, the country had economically recovered and taken the final steps towards full democratization. Although both crises are different, the experience of Professor Zedillo, a Yale-trained economist and graduate of Mexican politics, might prove useful to a young and challenged Obama administration.

Meetings between American and Mexican Presidents are as ubiquitous as “taco trucks” in Jackson Heights, Queens. The issues addressed during these meetings range from the improvement of relations by means of a courtesy visit to a ranch, to the negotiation of billions in dollars in aid to Mexico. Addressing these issues is important almost by definition, and this brings political benefits to the leaders involved (most of the time). However, it is difficult to believe that, in such meetings, Presidents actually exchange political advice.

A meeting between Zedillo and Obama would be a remarkable event, not only because this does not happen often, but also because Zedillo might actually offer insight on how to approach the economic crisis. Zedillo can offer advice as an economist, and here is an article published by him in Forbes that proves it. However, economics is not Zedillo’s comparative advantage. Zedillo’s experience as a survivor of economic and political crises is his comparative advantage and a source of advice on how to navigate rough seas. This does not mean that Zedillo is the greatest captain in Mexican history (and indeed some people preferred to jump to high seas rather than staying on board), but is a captain that brought the country to shore after a violent storm.

I’m immensely proud to announce that the Latin American Studies Department at Georgetown University has launched a new web site. “The Center for Latin American Studies was one of the first of its kind in the United States. Its core faculty bring together diverse scholarly interests with a focus on Latin America, and adjunct faculty drawn from the Washington, D.C. area supplement their offerings. The center regularly welcomes visiting scholars from both the United States and Latin America and sponsors many projects and programs, including the Mexico Project, which focuses on bilateral issues such as governance and trade between Mexico and the United States…” Read more about the Department here.

Another Georgetown highlight (in collaboration with the Organization of American States) is the Political Database of the Americas, an extensive collection of constitutional comparisons, elections data, political parties, and more.  The site receives tens of thousands of visitors per month.  Check it out at: http://pdba.georgetown.edu/

Two retired generals have captured the attention of the Mexican public. One general was kidnapped, tortured, and killed in a remote area near Cancun, in the south of the country. The other general successfully confronted a group of criminals that attempted to break into his house in Mexico City. The general not only killed one of the criminals, but managed to detain another one of them in spite of the wounds caused by the exchange of gunfire.

Beyond the tragedy, these events do highlight the complex role of the armed forces in Mexico. On the one hand, the armed forces are still considered the last bastion of honesty, legitimacy, and strength in a war against criminal organizations that has produced the largest number of casualties after the Mexican Revolution of 1910. Although the armed forces have also been affected by corruption, the Mexican public still considers them as a reliable force that can protect the population from violent criminal cartels.

However, the participation of the armed forces in the war against drugs has had a profound impact on the structure and morale of its members. Not only have the armed forces experienced the largest number of desertions in recent history, but dozens of its members have been kidnapped, tortured, and horribly killed by drug cartels. This is the first time that the armed forces have suffered such casualties. Ironically, many of the operatives of the drug cartels are former members of the army's special forces.

Unfortunately, the Mexican armed forces are in between a rock and a hard place. In spite of the aid provided by the United States, it seems that the Mexican government still does not have an immediate plan to confront organized crime without relying on the military. The government is currently developing reliable law enforcement agencies, but this is a slow process. In the meantime, only the armed forces can confront these powerful cartels.

The armed forces are not perfect and need to improve their human rights records (current practices as well as past actions). Nevertheless, they provide some security to some areas in the country. Many of its members are true patriots that have devoted their lives to the protection of the country. Unfortunately, given the current trends, these are armed forces might not survive the Drug War.

In August 2008, an article in the New Yorker described a number of outbreaks of highly resistant infections caused by "superbugs‚ those bacteria that have developed immunity to a wide number of antibiotics." Although the author of the article, Jerome Groopman, was referring to the harmful inhabitants of the human body, he could have been describing corruption at the heart of key law-enforcement agencies in Mexico. Indeed, corruption in Mexico, just like a sophisticated and resistant infection, has proven to be very difficult to remove from the government. In the latest corruption scandal, the Mexican government announced that the former head of the Unit of Specialized Investigations on Organized Crime (SIEDO), a pillar of the Attorney General's Office, had been providing strategic information to a violent and powerful drug cartel. This event was preceded by the arrest in late October 2008 of several high-ranking officials at SIEDO. The head of Interpol in Mexico was also arrested.

The administration of Felipe Calderon has placed a strong emphasis on law-enforcement and the fight against drugs. It has been suggested that, as a result of these aggressive policies, the country has witnessed some of the most violent times since the Mexican Revolution. The casualties of the current spike in violence now include thousands of cartel loyalists, police officers, and high-ranking officials.

While the armed forces function as the main pillars of the fight against drugs, civilian security agencies have almost been placed in quarantine while they go through a severe re-structuring process. Part of this process includes the identification of corrupt officials that have survived previous clean-up initiatives. Although the Mexican government deserves to be congratulated on its temporary success, it is unfortunate that it took almost 10 years to identify some of the officials that have been passing information to drug cartels. As it was suggested in this blog before, this is a responsibility of the entire government, and particularly of the Civil Service Department and the agencies involved.

How entrenched are the drug cartels in the government? The answer to this question is only known by a handful of people . The problem resides on whether some of these persons are actually in government and what kind of responsibilities they have. If they are in charge of further cleaning government agencies, then any progress made so far will be superficial at best. Although patients die from infections, governments cannot perish due to corruption. Unfortunately, corrupt agencies also survive on taxes.

Historically, the Interior Minister in Mexico has been the second most important politician in the country. Last week, Juan Camilo Mourino, the Interior Minister and a close ally of President Calderon, died in a plane crash. He has been replaced by Fernando Francisco Gomez Mont Urueta, an influential lawyer and high-ranking member of the ruling National Action Party (PAN).

The appointment has taken place during unexpected circumstances, and given the importance of the Interior Ministry, it was imperative to name a new minister in Bucareli. In spite of this, President Calderon carefully appointed a man who will be constructing bridges between important sectors within the increasingly fractionalized PAN. His background as a prestigious lawyer will also help him to reach across the aisle and build consensus between political parties. This is an important task and Gomez Mont is likely to succeed at it. However, key government agencies like the National Security Agency (CISEN) are part of the Ministry. This places the Interior Minister at the center of the national security apparatus and Gomez Mont is not particularly famous for his experience in national security matters. Clearly, President Calderon is relying on some other ministries to protect the country.

Indeed, national security efforts seem fractionalized. In order to solve this problem, the current administration has been working on a new law that will allow the Ministry of Public Security to place several federal police units under a central command. This will require Congressional approval and Gomez Mont will be a key actor during the negotiations.

Felipe Calderon has been in office for less than two years, which means that Gomez Mont will have plenty of time to make things happen. However, this is also enough time to make plenty of mistakes. Hopefully, the balance will favor the implementation of good policy (if there is such a thing) in Bucareli. This will help the PAN to win future elections in a context where the PRI is increasing its political capital across the country.

During the past two weeks my mid-term exams at Georgetown University have consumed nearly all my time.  After several papers, I’ve nearly finished my mid-terms with only one more to go in Economics for Latin American Studies…  That said, I should be back on track writing frequently for the Mexico blog, along with Alejandro.

In this time I’ve had the opportunity to meet two heads of state that spoke about issues that can be applied to Mexico.  First, President Jose Maria Aznar of Spain (pictured) spoke about common bonds between countries with Christian heritages and democratic values.  In Spain, this centered primarily around immigration of African migrants.  In the US, this would apply to Mexican migrants as well.

Second, newly elected President Fernando Lugo of Paraguay (below) spoke about cleaning up corruption and bringing honest reform to government.  Lugo's case is particularly interesting, since he resigned as archbishop in one of Paraguay's poorest districts to run for President and clean up the country which is currently ranked #138 on Transparency International's Corruption Perception index.  Mexico ranks 72 on this list.

As you’ve gathered, a lot is going on in the world of Mexico and more broadly Latin American Studies in Washington, DC these days.  For example, one of my professors at the School of Foreign Service who teaches Latin American States and Societies, John Bailey, was interviewed in two major Mexican newspapers this week, Excelsior and El Universal.  The first article in El Universal discussed how the Tec higher education system in Mexico is a reflection of “social warming”, that is, global interconnectedness and also the need to expand access to higher education within Mexico. The second article in Excelsior (featured in print, unfortunately not online) addressed the fact that narcoterrorism is now entering the media when describing the situation of organized crime and drugs, resembling an Aghanistan.  Professor Bailey also touched on the need to create a political consensus to fight organized crime in Mexico, and that either President-elect in the US will support this initiative.

Mentioning the American Presidential campaign, I find intriguing that the issue of immigration reform has been put on the back burner for what I believe is more than a month.  Surely this will be one of the pressing issues the next President faces, and I would have liked to see substantive discussion during the Presidential debates.

However, the two issues which are now dominating in Mexico are the financial crisis and organized crime.  With the financial crisis pulling down markets worldwide, Mexico is surely to be affected.  However, the degree to which the economy will suffer is difficult to determine at this point, and I believe very unlikely that it would approach crises seen in 1994 and 1997-8. So far the Mexican Central Bank (Banxico) believes the effects will be mixed.  See commentary with the bank chief Elizondo Almaguer in Spanish here. Feel free to post a comment to see my further thoughts.
Organized crime continues to dominate the headlines in Mexico.  Alejandro's last post noted that drug cartels have infiltrated senior levels of the government, and the gap between action and rhetoric seems to be widening.  In connection with the scandal, the top Federal Police Commissioner, Victor Gerardo Garay, resigned.  This week policemen were gunned down in Michoacan.  Next Wednesday the Mexican Ambassador to the US will be coming to my department for a roundtable, and I am eager to hear his take.

Until then, we’ll wait for tomorrow's exciting US election news!