Mexico

On July 18th, the Mexican Navy intercepted a mini submarine that was transporting more than 5 tons of cocaine. This is a significant operation that highlights the ability of Mexican armed forces to combat drug trafficking by air, land, and sea. Bilateral cooperation between the United States and Mexico contributed to the capture of the submarine. Given the current context, it is important to ask whether foreign assistance in the form provided by the Mérida Initiative or Plan Colombia actually reduce drug trafficking.

Answering such a question is not an easy task. Indeed, there are methodological issues that do not allow to test whether military assistance provided by one country (or countries) to another actually reduce drug trafficking. A large transfer of resources to combat drugs is public information. Drug cartels can observe this transfer. Having observed the transfer, they can modify their activities accordingly. However, this modification is not observable—although intelligence agencies should be able to observe these activities. Cartels can improve their efforts and become even more difficult to catch (they become better drug traffickers); or they can reduce their efforts, thus giving the impression that the aid is working (they play a low profile). This last event is a response to the transfer, not a response to the actual implementation of the funds provided by the transfer.

But high office is run by politicians and not by researchers. Indeed, it is always good to show the photos of a submarine being taken over by Special Forces. We can expect observing more dramatic seizures of drugs under a new bilateral relationship between Mexico and the United States. The question is whether those seizures will be masking other types of illegal operations that make use of even more fantastic ways of transporting drugs across countries.

In March 1st 2008, Colombian armed forces destroyed a camp of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in Ecuador. Raul Reyes, a FARC’s top commander, died in what is considered the “biggest blow” to the guerrilla group so far. The Colombian armed forces also killed 4 Mexican students and injured another one. The incident and the sole Mexican survivor Lucia Morett’s testimony, have caused tensions between Mexico and Colombia, and galvanized the public in favor and against the Colombian President Álvaro Uribe and his administration. This is indeed unprecedented.

First, although relations between Mexico and Colombia have always been close, the conflict has produced tension between them. On the one hand, the Mexican government is obliged to protect the rights of the Mexicans involved. This places more international pressure on the Colombian government to adjust its policies against guerrilla forces and improve its human rights records. On the other hand, these tensions have been fueled by statements given by the Colombian President about the relationship between the Mexican students and the FARC–they were called terrorists and criminals; and by the Colombian government’s refusal to compensate the relatives of the Mexican students. In addition, both countries have dispatched members of their police forces to investigate the circumstances surrounding the deaths and FARC operations in Mexico. In a continent where sovereignty and self-determination are pillars of foreign policy, the results of police investigations are likely to provoke more tensions.

Second, the activities of the Mexicans killed and injured in the attack have caused protests against the Colombian government and declarations in favor of its guerrilla tactics. Conservative groups in Mexico have publicly backed President Uribe and his tactics, and even presented a formal request to the General Attorney’s Office (Procuraduría General de la República) for an investigation of the possible links between Mexican students and Colombian guerrilla fighters and drug-traffickers. According to these associations, there might be a link between the FARC and violent groups in Mexico–which has been plagued by kidnappings and has experienced guerrilla-style attacks in the last few years.

Conversely, relatives of the killed students, supported by their classmates from the National University (usually associated with the Left in Mexico), have argued that Lucia Morett and her companions were only doing research in Ecuador when they were attacked while staying in the FARC camp. According to this version of the story, the Mexican students were in the wrong place at wrong time. Moreover, they accused Uribe and his administration for the murder of their relatives and friends. In late March, protestors demonstrated in front of the Colombian embassy in Mexico City and marched towards the Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs. On March 30th, the Ministry produced a declaration confirming its commitment to protect the international rights of Mexicans. The declaration also condemned the Colombian incursion into Ecuador and requested compensation from Colombian authorities. In late April, some relatives of the students killed in the attack announced that they will visit Colombia and meet with members of the Colombian Congress.

Mexican and Colombian authorities are currently investigating the presence of the students in the FARC camp attacked in Ecuador on March 1st. While the incident has affected relations between Colombia and Mexico, it is important to note that the tensions between the administration of President Uribe and Mexican society are greater than the problems between the Colombian and Mexican governments. Indeed, governments can cooperate and negotiate, yet both are subject to domestic constituencies that demand, on the Colombian side, an end to the war at all costs; and on the Mexican side, the protection of Mexican nationals abroad–which echoes demands for the protection of Mexican immigrants to the United States–and the protection of Mexicans from kidnappings and drug-related violence within Mexico.

At the center of this conflict are human rights concerns. Both Mexico and Colombia need to learn how to carry out their national security policies without endangering the rights of innocent citizens and their visitors. By improving their human rights standards, they would also improve regional security while combating transnational guerilla activities and drug trafficking.