John McCain talked about growing the economy through low taxes on minority-owned businesses and comprehensive immigration reform and continued support of free trade (NAFTA, DR-CAFTA, Colombia, and eventually a hemisphere-wide agreement).  He also emphasized his credentials and appreciation of latinos as he as served as Senator from Arizona.  Notably, he suggested Barack Obama should visit Latin America for the first time.

Barack Obama promoted a legal path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, tax relief to low-income families, and emphasizing affordable college education.

Answering such a question is not an easy task. Indeed, there are methodological issues that do not allow to test whether military assistance provided by one country (or countries) to another actually reduce drug trafficking. A large transfer of resources to combat drugs is public information. Drug cartels can observe this transfer. Having observed the transfer, they can modify their activities accordingly. However, this modification is not observable—although intelligence agencies should be able to observe these activities. Cartels can improve their efforts and become even more difficult to catch (they become better drug traffickers); or they can reduce their efforts, thus giving the impression that the aid is working (they play a low profile). This last event is a response to the transfer, not a response to the actual implementation of the funds provided by the transfer.

But high office is run by politicians and not by researchers. Indeed, it is always good to show the photos of a submarine being taken over by Special Forces. We can expect observing more dramatic seizures of drugs under a new bilateral relationship between Mexico and the United States. The question is whether those seizures will be masking other types of illegal operations that make use of even more fantastic ways of transporting drugs across countries.

1) the Mexican navy for the first time caught a drugs submarine from Colombia carrying 6 tons of cocaine (see BBC video here)

2) a cemetery outside Monterrey that was thought to contain only Mexican soldiers from the Mexican-American war was found to contain the remains of four Americans.  Story here.

It is not surprising to learn that drug cartels present a clear and present danger to Mexican democratic institutions. This was recently declared by Guillermo Valdés, head of Mexican intelligence. Unfortunately, the current fight against drugs has not improved the situation. During the last year, the country has experienced a dramatic increase in the number of drug-related casualties. In addition, the federal government has overexposed the military to a force it was not prepared to fight. This explains the need to minimize the involvement of the armed forces and increase the budget to recruit more regular police forces.

The question is whether the new impulse in the fight against drugs in Mexico will start having an impact before the situation becomes unmanageable and drug cartels control more municipalities in the country.

Of course, the appointment and dismissal of high ranking public officials is a prerogative of the President and not of the Senate. This was clearly stated by the Ministry of the Interior in a response to the agreement reached at the Senate. In the press release, the Ministry of the Interior denies any accusations of espionage and makes a reference to the outstanding record of Valdés Castellanos as head of the CISEN. In spite of this clear demonstration of support, it seems that members of the Senate will continue to keep this event as an issue in Mexican politics.

Manlio Fabio Beltrones, Senator from Sonora, has formally placed an accusation of espionage at the Attorney General’s Office. This is quite a turn of events for Beltrones, a former high ranking official linked to the political police that was part of the PRI-led administration that ruled Mexico for more than 70 years. Beltrones, a fomer governor of Sonora, was accused by American intelligence of having ties to drug traffickers in the late 1990s. Today, Beltrones is the PRI leader at the Senate.

So for this month’s scandal, the intelligence services hired a consulting company to collect information about members of Congress. The consulting company came up with a fictitious form that Senators had to fill out for the purposes of publishing an academic book. Naïve and not-so-naïve members of Congress fell for the trick. Once they found out they were subject to an unauthorized collection of information—espionage for short, according to them—they have asked for the resignation of the head of intelligence services.

If Valdés Castellanos becomes a political liability, Calderón is likely to remove him regardless of his past record as head of intelligence. Unlike Valdés Castellanos, who can be removed quickly, Beltrones and other Senators can only be removed—or in fact prevented from reaching office—by their electorates. This usually takes up to 6 years. For better or worse, that is how fixed terms work.

In perspective, the $465 million to combat drug trafficking in Mexico and Central America pales in comparison to the massive spending in Afghanistan and Iraq.  Nevertheless, it represents an important step forward in bilateral and multilateral relations between the US, Mexico, and Central America.  All parties have signed a free trade agreement, which has now led to a security agreement against illegal drugs.  The passage also represents a balancing act between Mexico and the United States.  Both parties weighed the desire to protect human rights against concerns of sovereignty and efficacy.  Its passage is a great step forward, and ideally will reduce the influence of illegal drugs cartels and, if not more importantly, bring Latin America into America’s foreign policy spotlight.  Perhaps the next step will be immigration reform…

However, it seems that McCain is not building the right alliances in Mexico when it comes to immigration. McCain’s position on border security caused more controversy than his visit to the Catholic temple because he suggested that it was necessary to secure the border between Mexico and the United States before attempting immigration reform. This realistic, yet unpopular position—at least in Mexico and some liberal circles in the United States—was particularly highlighted by the media. This is only normal, as there are more than 8 millions Mexicans living—legally or illegally—in the United States.

Overall, McCain’s visit to Mexico was surprising. However, it was a good surprise, as the trip suggests that Mexico is more important in his platform than previously announced. Although Barack Obama has addressed the issue of Mexico before, he has not suggested that Mexico is in his itinerary. Although a visit to Mexico can only bring limited votes—which is what matters in an election—there is nothing wrong with paying a visit to one the most important allies of the United States in the Americas.